Great Bend Tribune
Published October 5, 2024
The drought monitor report as of Tuesday, October 1 shows a deterioration in drought conditions for the state. Barton County is still entirely in moderate drought while Stafford and Pawnee counties lost the improvements from last week. The six to ten-day outlook (October 8 to 12) indicates a 60 to 80% chance of likely above normal temperatures and a 40 to 60% chance of likely below normal precipitation. The eight to fourteen-day outlook (October 10 to 16) indicates a 60 to 80% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and a continued 40 to 50 % chance of leaning below normal for precipitation.
Wheat, along with other small grain winter cereals such as rye and triticale, is in the ground and trying to emerge. Summer crop harvest is underway, especially soybeans and corn. With the hot, dry forecast, harvest should proceed rapidly. Those wanting to plant after a summer crop are considering if they can get the wheat out of the ground and through the winter. Some parts of the state are in much better shape than our immediate area. Very little of the state is totally out of dry conditions. Today, what is the Climate Prediction Center’s crystal ball seeing in our weather future? As an aside, they are usually pretty spot on.
- For October through December, the temperature outlook is 33 to 50% of leaning above normal for temperature and 33 to 40% chance of leaning below normal for precipitation. This is the time of year when liquid precipitation is only about one inch per month in November and December. Not what wheat growers want to hear.
- For November through January, the temperature outlook is still for 33 to 40% above normal for temperatures and the precipitation outlook is normal. Again, normal is only about one inch per month. Again, not good for wheat, especially with above normal temperatures. Not good for spring planted summer crops as producers want subsoil moisture recharge.
- January through March is for equal chances regarding temperature and precipitation. This is somewhat better but not great. Cold temperatures help with insect and disease control. And normal march precipitation is approximately two inches of liquid precipitation.
- Finally, March through May is like January through March. In April, moisture normally increases to a little over three inches and in May, 3.5 to 4 inches. With normal temperatures, this helps the wheat crop and with establishing summer row crops.
These outlooks can change. Depending on what happens off the west coast of South America. Additionally, as Oceans warm along with the other effects of climate change, prediction becomes more difficult as we lack data.